Fast Times on 'Fast Money' - 03/24/11

Last night on "Fast Money," we had a general conversation regarding the price of oil and its impact on general economic activity.

I remain concerned that we are closer to a tipping point of an economic disappointment caused by the steady rise in energy prices. (It is interesting to note that just-reported U.K. retail sales were much lower than consensus ). In a previous CNBC segment, "Street Signs," Omega's Lee Cooperman suggested $125/barrel was a likely tipping point for the economy.

(Here is a recent post and two interesting charts that document the relationship of the rate of change in the price of crude vs. the price movement of the S&P 500 index. As seen, we are now at the rate of change in energy prices that coincides with stock market vulnerability.)

Determining the specific tipping point on price is a rough exercise. I suggested on "Fast Money" that we watch the Retail HOLDRS (RTH) -- which has begun to break down -- as a signal that personal consumption expenditures might weaken due to rising energy prices and other costs of necessities. As well, the various confidence and sentiment studies could give us a hint.

As an expression of my concerns, I would be short retail stocks.

"Gentleman" Tim Seymour made a strong case that the consumer, thus far, is weathering the storm.

Apparently the stock markets agree with Tim and disagree with me! (Stock futures are well bid and appear to be looking beyond higher crude oil prices.)