Those Who Tell Don't Know - 07/08/10

Wall Street is lined with geniuses who have made one good call in a row!

"I'm astounded by people who want to 'know' the universe when it's hard enough to find your way around Chinatown."

-- Woody Allen

On Tuesday night's "Fast Money," I declared that I thought the market had likely hit a low for the year.

I have warned of talking heads (myself included), who are certain in their views and glib of opinion:

I have long felt that in a world with so many uncertainties and numerous economic outcomes, a glib and certain investment and/or fundamental view is uncalled for.

The same can be said of a technical view, as the technical picture is blurred by new influences (most importantly, high-frequency trading strategies) that mess up and obscure those technical setups.

It is for these reasons that I almost always frame my views with the caveat that a sense of conviction is fine, but our investment world is far too complicated and unpredictable to have a high degree of confidence.

And it is for these reasons that in making investment and economic conclusions, I try to use the words "possibly," "might" and "likely" as opposed to "will" and "definitely."

Accordingly, I have consistently counseled that both traders and investors should have smaller positions and more diversified portfolios than what would have been typical over the past several decades.

So, in listening to strategists, money managers and talking heads in the business media and in reading the views of contributors on RealMoney (and elsewhere), run away from anyone who is certain -- and that most certainly includes me!

When I called for a generational low in March 2009, I reminded all of you that Wall Street is lined with geniuses who have made one good call in a row!

So, let me remind you of that adage again, this morning, within the context of my yearly low forecast made earlier in the week!

With that said, I was on "Fast Money" again last night, reiterating my market low view.

And, earlier on Wednesday morning, I had an interesting and wide-ranging interview with John "Y-Man" Najarian on Yahoo!'s "Tech Ticker."